Thursday, October 30, 2014

Consume!

The following chart shows the 4-quarter moving average of personal consumption expenditures divided by GDP.


Click to enlarge.

100% here we come! Straight as an arrow, that one! Not sure what will happen when we hit 100% (psst: guaranteed linear trend failure), but let's not worry about it now! It's a time for celebration!

Let's zoom in for a closer look.


Click to enlarge.

What? Who drew that blue trend line on my optimistic chart? Shame on them!

There are two easy ways to get back to the red long-term trend line. This does not need to end in failure yet!

1. Increase consumption growth! Yay!
2. Reduce GDP growth. Boo!

This is America! If anyone can consume more, it is us. So get out there and do your part! Don't let the blue trend win!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

2 comments:

Fritz_O said...

If anyone can consume more, it is us.

We not only consume more, we think more.

We not only consume more, we sweat less.

China, et. al., have figured out that our theory of "let them sweat, we'll think" is soooooo last year's iPhone and Nike sneaker.

100% is closer than most of the "thinkers" think.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

We not only consume more, we think more.

We not only consume more, we "stink" more!

If you are significantly overweight or obese, you are probably uncomfortable much of the time. You might even have frequent heartburn, gas and discomfort in your bowel area.

We not only consume more, we sweat less.

Too bad. Sweating (exercise) more might actually fix it, lol. Sigh.