Thursday, February 20, 2014

Free Advice for Fed: Raise Rates When Furniture Sales Fully Recover

The Fed isn't quite sure what threshold it should be using to determine when to raise interest rates. Can't say I blame them. I therefore thought I'd offer some free (deflationary) advice.

Furniture sales and new home sales go hand in hand. Right? So simply raise rates when furniture store sales (as a percentage of disposable personal income) reach "normal" levels again. What could be easier? Transparent. Clean. Consistent.


Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in on that recent trend in red and try to estimate how long it will take to get back to normal.


Click to enlarge.

The solution is clear. Raise rates just this side of never. Be just like Japan!

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

8 comments:

mab said...

So simply raise rates when furniture store sales (as a percentage of disposable personal income) reach "normal" levels again

Nice plan! Basically, we just need to manipulate the ratio. Shouldn't be too hard. I'll try and add a few specifics.

First, we crush incomes. This shouldn't be a problem as we've been doing it for years. Outsourcing, illegal immigration, regressive taxes, financial fraud, etc.

Second, we offer fog-a-mirror style credit to encourage people to buy furniture. We also unleash a CNBC propaganda blitz extoling the virtues of furniture as a sure thing get rich investment. We'll need some catchy slogans of course:

Couches are like personal ATMs!

Furniture prices only go up!

They're still making more of it - for a good reason, stupid!

You deserve a Bed today!

Carpet bomb your selfie with a Persian!

If you have to ask the price, don't worry, we'll help you charge it







Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Genius! This can work!

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5. Monthly payments so low you'll think we're being ripped off! And you're right!

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CP said...

Mark,

I figured out the fallacy behind what the inflationists are trying to do.

They think that since the central bank can print any amount of money, they can cause inflation.

That part is technically true.

But what they *actually* want is gentle, restrained inflation that is even across all categories. House prices, waiters' tips, silver, oil, paper towels all going up 2% a year.

That doesn't seem to be possible, here or in Japan.

They can have inflation but it's lumpy and shows up in the least desired places. You could print so much money that an ounce of silver goes to $1,000 before the average low skilled wage would increase 50%.

CP

mab said...

There are no stupid questions!

Are you sure? Just kidding!

Stagflationary Mark said...

CP,

They can have inflation but it's lumpy and shows up in the least desired places.

Your commentary fits right in with my latest post. What timing!

Deflation: Making Sure "It" Happens Here?

You will note that Bernanke did not mention wages or salaries in that paragraph, nor anywhere else in his speech for that matter. Perhaps the Fed's ability to decrease the value of a dollar is at best like a blunt hammer, and not a surgical instrument.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

There are no stupid questions!

Are you sure? Just kidding!

Should I be? Hahaha! :)

Mr Slippery said...

They can have inflation but it's lumpy and shows up in the least desired places.

Cancer is also lumpy and shows up in the last desired places. I am not sure if there have been any studies, but I suspect long term exposure to the Fed causes economic cancer.

The Fed can even run their own scientific study since they have double blind PhDs.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

The Fed can even run their own scientific study since they have double blind PhDs.

Hahaha!

Here's an early study.

A Bit of Fry and Laurie - Bank Loan

Demand is there. No question. One of the most exciting things for me is that it's such a young market. Oh, yes. Immensely young. Yes, consumer profiling indicates the 12 to 15 year-old segment, and um, well, you know, if we can instill brand loyalty into them at that age, well, that's gotta be good news. But, but, but... yes, you're thinking 12 to 15 olds, do they have the income? Well, what I always say to that is this. Um, if the product's right they'll find the income. You know, out of their mother's handbag, car stereos, old age pensioners...

I should probably mention that the blue sachet is cocaine and the red is heroin. That's the product he wishes to sell, lol. Sigh.