I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
NVIDIA Revisited
-
On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a
critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the
stoc...
Going Long
-
Made some big moves in retirement accounts in the last couple of months.
The boldest, and luckiest, was going 100% SP500 in one of my accounts at
the end o...
Stay away from popular tech stocks, part II
-
Last August, I wrote a blog post arguing that largest technology and
internet companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft -- would
never grow i...
Updating the HF Indicators
-
I posted this over on Seeking Alpha.
Not much good seems to be happening, and I am concerned about the low pace
of construction and a likely end to the sho...
Yes, Well, It's Still a Friday Night
-
I doubt anyone is still reading the old stuff, but I have a quiet Friday
night and figured, why not a Friday Night Rock Blog?
I found this one recently (...
The linear trend line in blue is for those who think the growth in the money supply should have a direct effect on the growth in retail sales. One might call this group the optimists. They hope for a return to the blue trend line and all will be well when it does.
The logarithmic trend line in red is for those who think the growth in the money supply is having a diminishing "bang for the buck" effect on the growth in retail sales. One might call this group the pessimists. They brace for a return to the red trend line and all will fall apart when it does.
Based on the correlation seen in the trend lines, I'd say the pessimists have the stronger case.
I am between the two camps, with a decidedly pessimistic bias. I do not think the Fed has permanently removed the possibility of recessions. I would also not want to be an optimist when the next one hits (whenever that is).
And lastly, there's one group left. Thehyperinflationistsseem to think that not only will we make it back to the blue trend line but we will surpass it with great abundance. $10 trillion in monthly retail sales here we come! And when might this happen? If history is a guide, it is *always* a few months away. You just need to be extremely patient!
No comments:
Post a Comment