Gold to Cement Price Ratio

Click to enlarge.

I've used the USGS to generate the data in black from 1900 to 2008 and the median value in blue. The current data point uses data from the Massachusetts Department of Transportation and Kitco.

September 15, 2010
Soros calls gold 'the ultimate bubble'

"Gold is the ultimate bubble," Soros said at an event in New York sponsored by Reuters. "It is certainly not safe."

I'm really trying to show that risk in the chart above (as I have also done with commodities such as aluminum, cattle, and salt).

December 28, 2010
One Investment Strategy for Q1 2011: Cash, Baby, All the Way

That everyone believes gold and silver have no downside makes me skeptical. If you are a buy-and-forget investor in precious metals, fine, but the market likes to destroy some wealth when the trade gets lopsided. The time to buy anything, gold and silver included, is after everyone who believed there was no possible downside has their head handed to them on a platter.

It's a good read for contrarians. He manages to cover many of the bases (from the recovery to China to central bank sure things). I prefer I-Bonds (and TIPS) over cash long-term, but that's mostly just a personal preference.

You will also note that I continue to lean deflationary in the short-term as seen in the upper left hand corner of my blog. That doesn't mean I think it is sure to happen. I simply believe that it is more likely than most seem to think, especially if Jim Chanos is right about China.

December 30, 2010
The Hindu Business Line: Cement industry will be weighed down by excess supply

2011 could be a challenging year for cement manufacturers. Though demand for cement will reach higher double-digit growth, it will be insufficient to absorb the entire supply. Rising input prices and excess capacity (and resultant pricing pressures) will continue to depress margins for cement manufacturers.

December 14, 2010
U.S. Shoppers Drive Asian Shares Higher, Unsexy Cement Hot Commodity in China

In China investors bet money on cement companies after word spread that the government plans to build 10 million low-cost apartments over the next year. That's 72% more than the number constructed this year, according to Xinhua, and that means more of those slab buildings emerging from shrouds of bamboo scaffolding in many Chinese cities. Today Fujian Cement and Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement both hit the 10% daily limit.

Just keep betting money right to the end. You've got to handy it to those savvy Chinese.

Source Data:
USGS: Historical Mineral Statistics
Kitco: Gold
massDOT: Price Adjustments (cement)