Saturday, November 27, 2010

Today's Dose of Propaganda

November 27, 2010
Higher gas prices won't slow most holiday shoppers

What's a few extra bucks? Higher gas prices won't hurt holiday spending much, shoppers say

I bet you are wondering how many shoppers offered an opinion. The answer appears to be two. Here's a summary of the results.



Here's anecdotal evidence that supports the claim.

Cassie Peterson, 25, a health coordinator from St. Paul, said higher prices won't change what she buys for her nieces...

Here's anecdotal evidence that weakens the claim.

In Hartford, Conn., Michael Hardaway, 54, paid $3.10 a gallon for gas for his Chevy Silverado. He said he will reduce his spending on Christmas gifts...

Here's additional anecdotal evidence that doesn't even mention holiday shopping. I therefore had to throw it out of my analysis. It is a useless data point.

"It stinks," said stockbroker Jack Landers, 64, as he paid $3.11 at a service station...

Let's follow the logic here.

1. Higher gas prices will definitely not slow one person's shopping.
2. Higher gas prices will definitely slow another person's shopping.
3. Therefore, "Higher gas prices won't slow most holiday shoppers."

It's hard to fault the analysis (other than the fact that a sample size of two is rather small and error prone). Half is certainly not most. This is fantastic news of course. Higher gas prices won't slow "most" holiday shoppers.

Since this is an Illusion of Prosperity blog I figure I can use that very same anecdotal evidence to offer up some doom and gloom. Brace for it. You might consider sitting down first if you are prone to fainting and/or you work in the retail trade industries.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that higher gas prices slow 50% of holiday shoppers!

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

On Friday there was a whole segment on CNBC about spy technology used to count cars in parking lots of shopping centers to assess the economic "recovery."

More cars in the parking lot in 2010 compared to 2009 on the Saturdays leading up to Thanksgiving was offered as conclusive proof that our mighty economy was turning the corner. One thing that I mentioned to my wife was that many of the cars could have been occupied by homeless people in 2010 compared to 2009 after UE benefits had run their course. She was, of course, skeptical since I do not work for a major bubble network. I also wonder what happens when we have covered decks? Infrared heat seeking, next?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

Perhaps the counting of cars will usher in a new era of reverse parking fees? Customers are paid to park?

"Keep your car in our lot for 2 full hours and receive 10% off your purchase!"

As a side note, you'll never become Chief Economist at the NAR suggesting that the homeless can live in cars!

"They aren't making any more land!"

EconomicDisconnect said...

"It's called Sex Panther. It's made with bits of real pnather, so you know it's good. 60% of the time, it works everytime"
"That doesn't make any sense."

All I know is I spent $38 on 12 gallons today but I have cash to burn. On bathroom sink gaskets......

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

"Two captains will sink the ship." - Turkish Proverb

No!

One captain will gasket the sink! ;)

mab said...

Stag,

I like to look at the second derivative. It's especially uselessful when dealing with small and error prone samples.

Just doing my part to add to the general (mis)understanding!

Anonymous said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGVZ&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Nothing to see here--move along :)

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"I like to look at the second derivative."

Well, if there's 100+ trillion dollars in derivatives to choose from then just finding the 2nd one is miraculous! Congrats!

Puns on a Monday? That's a bad sine. I went off on a tangent. Don't make me cosine alone though!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

Perhaps it means that we briefly made it to the eye of the financial hurricane? If true, that would mean that the crisis is 50% done! Assuming it started in 2000, that would mean we could be financially stable again in 2020. That's way ahead of my projections! Woohoo!

I just sort of assumed we'd be unstable from here on out. You've given me the tiniest glimmer of hope, lol. Sigh.

Anonymous said...

we briefly made it to the eye of the financial hurricane?<<

Good one!!