Friday, October 22, 2010

Rubicon Sighting!

Readers of this blog may recall that my sarcasm disclaimer refers to a long standing joke about the 1200 level on the S&P 500 (the "Rubicon" level).

Credit Suisse is now backing my sarcasm theory!

October 22, 2010
Credit Suisse: Buy These 20 Dividend Stocks

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Credit Suisse(CS_) says U.S. stocks will trade within a narrow range. The bank predicts a ceiling of 1,200 on the S&P 500 and a floor of 1,000. It's no wonder the bank is recommending clients purchase dividend stocks.

Here's the crazy part. I have actually been considering some of the stocks on that list (consumer staples) for the money in my IRA. I'm in no hurry though, especially if Credit Suisse's 1,000 to 1,200 range holds true. We are at the very upper end of it right now after all.

Based on the currently pathetic real yields of TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), there is actually a chance that the cash in my IRA may actually be redeployed into relatively defensive stocks again at some point. Maybe.

4 comments:

remy said...

perhaps credit suisse really expects the markets to soar and wants you to buy div stocks...

Stagflationary Mark said...

remy,

Or perhaps Credit Suisse really does expect the S&P 500 to drop to 1,000, they have a lovely collection of div stocks they wish to unload, and they would love to tell you "I told you so" later if your newly purchased div stocks fall in sympathy?

What's potentially wrong with this picture?

1. Predict S&P 500 stocks to fall 15% (1180 now to 1000 floor).
2. Recommend buying some S&P 500 stocks.

Anonymous said...

I love getting my monthly dividends from my Canadian stocks. Pipelines, telecoms, liquor stores, student transport, chemical companies, electricity sellers, etc. My rules were 7% and above dividend rate and I bought no more than $10,000 per company to spread it out.

I also bought some Israeli cellphone stock that pays good dividends, too. I would almost say that Iphone usage is probably safer than wheaties consumption now.

As long as a I get the return, I can ignore (or try) paper gains or losses as the market fluctuates. I think QE has been helpful, as the market went up when I thought it would go down. I guess I have a small buffer now.

Coba

Stagflationary Mark said...

Coba,

Congrats!

I am ultra conservative these days and even that has paid off on paper.

I dropped $59k on the 30-Year TIPS back in February (expected to pay $60k but nobody seemed to want them then). The market says its worth 20% more today. So many rushed in behind me.

It is my hope that I give up some of those gains though, if only because I wish to continually buy TIPS in upcoming auctions as previous TIPS mature. I just don't care for the current rates all that much. Sigh.