Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Hot Commodities vs. Commodity Glut?

In the red corner, weighing in at 800 pounds we have our current world champion. His simple answers are nearly always undisputed. He's the house of pain. He's the man with the plan. Please welcome, Mr. Gorilla!

Hot Commodities: Precious Metals boom in China

The answer is simple: commodities are booming in China, and commodity industry is the largest investment sector in the dragon land these days. Investors love commodities in China. No wonder, the spicy garlic is now one of the hottest agricultural commodities in China to invest in. Garlic prices have shot up by more than 50 per cent in the last few months in China that there is an acute supply vs. demand crisis on the commodity. Investing in garlic is going crazy in China that analysts are comparing the spicy stuff to gold these days!

In the blue corner, weighing in at 10,000 pounds we have our challenger. He hasn't won a fight since The Great Depression. Some say he's washed out, burned out, a has been. Please welcome, Mr. Elephant in the Room!

China's 'Made in China' Problem

The easy credit helped boost demand for commodities such as steel, chemicals, and glass. But it also led to a boom in new factories to make those goods. That may increase trade frictions if China starts exporting the excess at cut-rate prices—what trade experts call dumping. With the mainland's steel production capacity outstripping domestic demand by nearly 30%, "will they shut those plants down and lay those people off, or export their way out of it?" asks Daniel R. DiMicco, CEO of Charlotte-based steel producer Nucor (NUE). "Their tendency is to export."

China's state planning agency is warning of massive overcapacity in a half-dozen industrial sectors. Cement makers have added 600 million tons of annual production capacity this year to the 1.9 billion tons China already had. Aluminum smelters are running at only two-thirds capacity vs. nearly four-fifths last year. And over the past two years the number of Chinese companies making wind power equipment has quadrupled to more than 80.

8 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

For what it is worth, I think the most striking thing to me is that the global economy already crashed once, and hard.

China's state planning agency is warning of massive overcapacity in a half-dozen industrial sectors.

Apparently nothing was fixed though.

EconomicDisconnect said...

I guess they think if they build enough overcapacity in everything the demand will come. The "Field of Dreams" for economics I guess. Let me know how that all works out.

Bed early, I think I have a non H1N1 bug that has me beat for the night.

Anonymous said...

Deflation it is then. A little here. A little there. I'm not buying anything until I see it on sale!... With 0% financing.

Ed G.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Ed G.,

Let's hope it ends up being a nail biter of a match, at least until I'm dead and buried.

I do think the elephant has the element of surprise though. The situation is looking "Rocky". ;)

watchtower said...

Watchtower's deflation thought for the day (occured while driving down the road this morning):

"As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Anybody want to see second prize?"

"Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you're fired."

Glengarry Glen Ross

http://tinyurl.com/2slzra

There is probably some truth in that.

Stagflationary Mark said...

watchtower,

"There is probably some truth in that."

First prize is a reduction in benefits?
Second prize is a reduction in pay?
Third prize is extended unemployment?

EconomicDisconnect said...

"The bad news is there is doodoo for dinner. The good news is there's plenty of it! Extra bonus: Its warm!" Enjoy!

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

You are literally testing the line of "good taste" on this blog. I'm both laughing, and crying.

Here's some more good news. It isn't like Chinese food. If you eat it then it is very unlikely you'll be hungry again in an hour.