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Forget silver. Every cloud these days seems to have a red lining.
In the Red
Just seven years later, another economic downward spiral has hit California's wine industry, and small wineries, especially new ones, are working hard to stay afloat. With restaurant sales slowing, distributors shrinking and costs going up, smaller, quality-focused wineries, like those located in the hills surrounding Silicon Valley and up in the Santa Cruz Mountains, are caught in an even bigger economic downturn than the one they survived just a few years ago.
Of course, this could just be the same downturn. Stranger things have happened. The DJIA isn't just lower than its 2007 peak. It is also lower than its 2000 peak. Last I saw it wasn't packed with dotcom stocks either.
Economists Warn Against Feeding 'Trillion-Dollar Deficits'
George Mason University economics professor Walter Williams said he has little faith the deficits will be contracting anytime soon.
"Unless you believe in Santa Claus or the tooth fairy, you have to ask the question, 'Where's Congress going to get that money from?'" he said of the stimulus. "It's like you have a swimming pool, and you try to increase the height of the shallow end by taking buckets out of the deep end. It's foolhardy."
Let's talk foolhardy. $1.2 trillion dollars per year is roughly $4,000 borrowed for every man, woman, and child in America. At least some of it we're borrowing from China, a direct competitor of ours in the global markets. Here's the really odd part. The typical urban Chinese employee doesn't even make $4,000 in an entire year. Foolhardy does seem like a pretty good word to describe it. I'm reasonably confident that there will be serious unintended consequences.
That being said, all the alternatives look foolhardy. We've dug ourselves quite a hole. Who would have ever thought that borrowing money to fight two wars while simultaneously borrowing money to build ourselves a plethora of new homes would have forced us to borrow money to prop up the failing financial system?
Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up
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From BofA:
Since our update last week, *1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q/q
saar*. [Apr 19th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left ou...
3 hours ago
8 comments:
Stag,
From the Treasury Direct website:
How do you make a contribution to reduce the debt?
Make your check payable to the Bureau of the Public Debt, and in the memo section, notate that it is a Gift to reduce the Debt Held by the Public. Mail your check to:
Attn Dept G
Bureau Of the Public Debt
P. O. Box 2188
Parkersburg, WV 26106-2188
Hey, ya never know.
Hi Mark,
so what happened with this?
"Of course your next post will be entitled. "Wow, didn't see that one coming"
Can't wait to read it. Or maybe I should???????
Hahaha! If it turns out that I was once again too optimistic (quite possible), then I now have a great headline for my next post.
We're all picturing really tough times ahead. Heaven help us all if that's being way too optimistic.
German Bund 10 years failed today. Put a big red line around that cloud.
Yours in misery, love the company.
MAB,
How do you make a contribution to reduce the debt?
I'm inspired to start a new campaign.
Dent in the Debt
If every American sent in a check for a penny just imagine how much we'd pay it down.
That's about three million dollars!
Oh, but it doesn't end there. We'd also be propping up the economy. That's 120 million dollars worth of postage stamps!
I figure we can have the debt nearly paid off if we run the campaign three million times and everyone participates. Imagine the demand for postal workers. Unemployment would be history!
Here's the best part of all. We'd make a fortune selling the motivational buttons, posters, and bumper stickers.
We DID "it"!
It's sort of a cross between we the people, whip inflation now (Dent In the Debt), and making sure deflation ("it") doesn't happen here. Very patriotic. There'd be a flag on the button of course.
I'm Not POTUS,
"Wow, didn't see that one coming"
That's a seven sigma event, well outside my statistical models, lol.
Stag,
Let's talk foolhardy
We keep looking to eCONomists, especially Nobel Prize winning eCONomists for solutions to our financial tomfoolery.
The funny thing is, the Nobel prize in eCONomics is a sham. It's not even an actual Nobel Prize, but is an award given out in "honor" of Alfred Nobel by the Swedish Central bank since 1968. The same Swedish Central bank that oversaw the collapse of their entire banking industry in the early 1990s.
Maybe Zimbabwe can ride Mr Nobel's coat tail too. Their economics prize could be huge too. I'm thinking $100 billion Zimbabwe dollars ought to get the MSM talking.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_prize
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_banking_rescue
Modern economics is more about propaganda than truth.
mab,
Modern economics is more about propaganda than truth.
Here's a new economy propoganda buster.
Hearst to Sell Seattle Post-Intelligencer Newspaper (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aotRAsogY9AE&refer=us
The Post-Intelligencer, which was founded in 1863, has had operating losses since 2000. The loss will probably widen this year from $14 million in 2008, said Hearst, which has owned the publication since 1921.
“Our losses have reached an unacceptable level,” Steven Swartz, president of Hearst’s newspaper unit, said in the statement today.
Behold the power of capitalism. I found this article on the Internet. I didn't even have to pay a penny to read it. I do have the option of clicking on the "Trade Forex Like a Pro" advertisement. Guess what? I'm not even tempted. These days, trading like a pro might cost me a LOT of money, lol.
There is one link that is tempting me though.
Stocks in U.S. Drop, Capping Worst Week Since November on Payrolls Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=us&sid=a0OmGIoDXz20
“It’s going to be the toughest recession we’ve had and the jobs report confirms that,” said John Bogle, who created the $75 billion Vanguard 500 Index Fund in 1976. “It’s the most serious in just about everybody’s lifetime and maybe even mine because I was born in 1929.”
Wow, I better stop spending money frivolously. Ah, who am I kidding? I stopped in 1999 and there's no going back. My worst fear is what would happen to the economy if everyone started thinking like I do. I guess we might actually find out.
There's not a darned thing Bernanke can do about it either, at least as it relates to me. A cheap used book and a hammock is worth far more to me than a day "spent" at the shopping mall, especially if that day required a full work week in order to fund it.
I did splurge on a meal out today though. I spent $1 (plus tax) on a fairly tasty hamburger deluxe at Jack in the Box. Just doing my part to help prop up the overcapacity in the restaurant business. Every dollar counts, right? I figure after paying the employees, heating the building, and slapping the burger together with lettuce and tomato no less, the profits must just be rolling in.
December 22, 2008
Moody's revises Jack in the Box rating outlook
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-revises-Jack-in-the-apf-13895532.html
NEW YORK (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service on Monday revised Jack in the Box Inc.'s rating outlook to "Negative" from "Stable" because of the restaurant operator's high operating costs and exposure to poor discretionary consumer spending trends.
Well, color me surprised.
My worst fear is what would happen to the economy if everyone started thinking like I do. I guess we might actually find out.
I posed a question regarding your worst fear way back on your blog. If I recall correctly, you predicted the government would come to my house and piss on my money. No doubt they will travel by helicopter.
I saw a revamped Nutra System TV advertisement featuring Dan Marino today.
The new twist is that the low calorie foods are now on sale. I guess even dieters are worried about cost these days.
The odd thing is that the dieters could kill to birds with one stone - lose weight AND save money by not ordering the product at all.
I'm immune to advertising, but I appreciate the humor in many ads. Here's a favorite:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgxRg3pnBWo
mab,
The new twist is that the low calorie foods are now on sale. I guess even dieters are worried about cost these days.
December 19, 2005
NutriSystem packs it on in 2005
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/nutrisystem-hottest-stock-2005/story.aspx?guid=%7B046EB96E-7551-4BB2-8E3F-B5EC76130A9E%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
An investor who bought 100 shares NutriSystem (NTRI: 14.65, -1.20, -7.6%) at the end of 2004 would have paid just $285. That investment is worth $4,293 today.
You will note that 14.65 is somewhat less than 42.93.
"Fundamentally, we like this company because it serves a mass market (overweight Americans), and because new management has found the key to rapid growth via heavy marketing," said Timothy Lutts, editor of the Cabot Market Letter.
Too bad the "key" was horribly bent as it was forcefully jammed into the lock.
Analysts at research firm Thomas Weisel are also bullish on the stock, rating it outperform on expectations of strong long-term growth, driven by increasing sales to existing and repeat customers, a more differentiated product lineup and a soon-to-be-announced price hike.
It's been three years. You have to be really, really patient with advice given by analysts it seems. I hope we're not still waiting on that price hike.
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