Friday, November 30, 2007

Fear Minus Greed

The bull market in fear minus greed marches on.



This chart shows the 30 year year fixed rate mortgage rate minus the three month treasury bill rate. Shaded areas represent recessions. For a description of why I consider this to be a fear minus greed chart please see the close encounters link below.



Here's a closeup. We reached a new local high yesterday (the data on mortgages that I'm using is only provided once a week, on Thursdays).



Here's a look at unemployment. I'm reasonably convinced that March of 2007 marked the bottom. If so, the fear minus greed "party" might just be getting started.

See Also:
Close Encounters of the Fear Kind

Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
St. Louis Fed: The Employment Situation
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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