Saturday, October 20, 2007

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet

All industrialised economies will be required to deal with the ageing of their populations during the first half of the twenty-first century. The consequences of this process for central banks are likely to be of a “slow-burn” nature. First, the real rate of interest that is expected to clear the capital market could mildly decline over the next decades, owing to a fall in investment rates that would probably more than offset the effects of expected lower private and public savings rates. - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, September 26, 2007

The 1970s saw a serious decline in the real rate of interest. We are currently experiencing a decline in the real rate of interest. We are told this will probably get worse.

Given the financial market volatility and the reappraisal of risks in recent weeks, this assessment remains surrounded by heightened uncertainty. On balance, risks to this outlook for growth are judged to lie on the downside. - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, October 9, 2007

We are told that risks to growth lie to the downside.

First let me remind you that the ECB as well as the other central banks had indicated that there was a degree of under-pricing of risks in the global financial system and that financial institutions as well as market participants should prepare for the market correction to be as orderly and smoothly as possible. We are experiencing a significant market correction with episodes of high volatility and turbulence. - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, October 11, 2007

One week later, we experienced a significant market correction with an episode of high volatility and turbulence. Nice call!

I wanted to say, crucially, that global growth and prosperity are fantastic. - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, October 18, 2007

Well, aren't you the clever one by discussing how things were on Thursday!

So let's summarize.

We should expect more 1970s style growth. Check!
Risks lie to the downside. Check!
We are experiencing a significant market correction. Check!
We are experiencing episodes of high volatility and turbulence. Check!
We were doing "fantastic" just before Friday's stock market crash. Check!

You sir, appear to have a perfectly functioning crystal ball. I will be very interested to see what you have to say in the future. Please forgive me if I use my Reading Between The Lines Transmogrifier™ first though. In my opinion, you tend to be a bit wordy.

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